人民币升值对中国经济的影响研究：基于全球贸易分析模型（GTAP）的初步分析

内容提要  本文使用全球贸易分析模型分析了人民币升值对中国宏观经济、出口形势和国内价格的影响。分析结果表明，从长期看人民币升值对宏观经济、出口有着明显的负面影响，而且随着升值幅度的提高，负面影响将呈现递进趋势。但是，升值对平抑国内资产价格、降低恶性通货膨胀风险有着明显效果，以平抑国内资产和产品价格为政策目标的升值幅度应为高于10%、接近20%的水平。同时，如果在人民币升值的同时存在技术进步，则不仅可以抵消人民币升值对宏观经济的负面影响，而且有利于国内经济增长方式转型。

关 键 词  人民币升值  GTAP  中国经济  技术进步

Policy maker and researchers have been worrying about the negative impact of RMB appreciation on China’s export for a long time. In this research, we analyzed the impact of RMB appreciation on China’s macroeconomic, export situation, and domestic asset and commodity price based on GTAP model. According to the result of simulation, the negative impact of RMB appreciation on China’s macroeconomic and export is apparent, however, it will help the government to calm down domestic asset and commodity market efficiently. In the same time, with technology improvement, the negative effect of appreciation will reduced dramatically, and the combination of RMB appreciation and technology improvement will benefit China in transforming the economic growth pattern to domestic consumption-driven.

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