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[1] 见财政部“1987-2004年全国彩票销售统计表”: http://www.mof.gov.cn/news/20050302_1865_4821.htm。
[2] 见财政部“1987-2004年全国彩票公益金统计表” http://www.mof.gov.cn/news/20050302_1865_4818.htm。
[3] 这在彩票形式的博彩中更为明显,辅之以博彩组织者突出彩池金额的宣传。
[4] 个体的幸福感或满意度可能影响了他的认知能力,但是实证研究否定了这种关系(Furnham and Petrides, 2003)。
[5] 下文的相关分析表明,个体收入满意度和个体月收入水平之间显著正相关,但是相关系数并不高,为0.2643。
[6] 例如,参与博彩越频繁,支出越多,对自己的收入满意程度越低。这也是造成博彩病态心理的一个原因(Walker, 1998)。
[7] 采用博彩期望作为被解释变量,也可能存在期望参与博彩的个体选择与正在进行博彩的个体进行交往,从而出现从博彩参与期望到周围人大多参与博彩的可能。但是,我们的问卷涵盖了受访对象周围的人大多参与的13类投资项目,如银行存款、外汇、股票。债券、期货、基金等等。考虑到受访者在回答所有这些问题时都呈现出自己的选择和周围的大多数人的选择相似的情况,而每个受访对象又有多个期望参与项目,因此这里“周围的人”更可能是一个固定的参考群体,而不太可能受到个体出于某种投资目的而故意结交其他人的影响;或者即使这种影响存在,也非常有限,不会改变个体周围的人的主要构成,而局限在这一参考群体的边际变化上。
[8] 数据所限,我们没有进一步区分个体参与不同类别博彩的影响因素。因此,我们的研究是对各类博彩参与的一个共性研究。
[9] 篇幅所限,我们没有汇报回归变量的相关分析结果。回归变量的相关系数都低于0.7,不存在共线性问题(Lind et al., 2002)。
[10] 关于调查数据更加详细的介绍和讨论,参见奥尔多中心网站:www.aordo.org。
[11] 情形(1)中,个体的风险规避系数为净资产×(1-最低要价);情形(2)中,个体的风险规避系数为净资产×(最高出价-1)。净资产为个体汇报的总资产与总负债差额。净资产、最低要价、最高出价的单位均为万元。我们也考虑了特殊的指数效用函数,求得的风险规避系数的回归结果一致。有关风险规避系数的计算可参考Guiso et al. (2005)。
[12] 个体在投资决策时主要根据自己的感觉,可能也反映了较高的自信程度,从而高估了博彩获胜的概率。
[13] 个体对信息和数据帮助的渴望不仅反映了自身认知能力的不足,也反映了对自身缺陷的了解,而这反映了较高了认知能力。
[14] 其它方面的博彩供给变量需要利用更详细的微观数据,我们的数据不包含这些信息。这些博彩供给因素更多地用来分析博彩参与者可能的认知或信息偏差以及追求享乐的动机(Kearney, 2002)。
[15] logit回归模型的结果与probit回归模型的发现完全一致。
[16] 我们无法区分开以上三组内生互动渠道对博彩参与的影响,这也是今后研究的一个方向。
[17] 如对应公彩的西安宝马彩票案以及广泛见诸报端的私彩欺诈现象等。
[18] 采用与表2、3相似的回归模型设定也得出了类似的回归系数检验结果。
[19] 我们还采用城市平均的个体异常博彩参与比例作为划分标准。城市平均的个体异常博彩参与比例定义为:个体当前是否参与博彩的虚拟变量对除居民所在城市之外解释变量回归产生的残差项的城市平均值。采用这一划分标准,我们同样发现海口、南宁、兰州、武汉、珠海、天津的个体异常博彩参与比例较高,而长沙、上海、成都、沈阳、温州、北京的个体异常博彩参与比例较低,因此对应的检验结果完全一致。
[20] 采用与表2、3相似的回归模型设定也得到了类似的回归结果。
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