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不确定情境中的决策心理——适应与认知
作者:奥尔多投资咨询中心 访问次数: 更新日期:2006-6-6 18:57:25 来源:奥尔多投资咨询中心
 

 

Decision Making under Uncertainty: Adaptation and Cognition

 

        Abstract  Decision-making under uncertainty is being widely concerned among economists and psychologists, yet they have different theories to explain people’s decision-making behavior. The paper reviewed some theories on decision-making by economists and psychologistsincluding expected utility theory, subjectively expected utility theory and prospect theory. It mainly introduced some relevant research under ecological rationality approach, and described several heuristics discovered, such as one-reason rule. It also discussed the relationship between heuristics and adaptation. At the end, the paper analyzed the current trend of the research  

 

 

        Key words   decision-making   adaptation   cognition   

 

 

        朱莉琪  皇甫刚 

 

        摘 要:不确定情境中的决策问题广受经济学家和心理学家关注,但他们对人的决策行为有不同的解释.该文简要回顾了经济学和心理学视野中的决策理论,包括预期效用理论、主观预期效用理论和前景理论.主要介绍了"生态理性"观对人的决策心理的研究,着重介绍了研究者发现的几种启发式策略,"一个理由策略",并探讨了他们在人适应过程中的作用.文中最后分析了决策问题的研究现状.

        关键词:决策,适应,认知.

        分类号:B842.5 文献标识码:A

 

        基金项目:本文是中科院创新工程方向项目KSCXZ-SW-221 KSCX2-2-03及国家自然科学基金(项目编号:39970260)的部分工作.

        作者简介:通讯作者:朱莉琪

        作者单位:朱莉琪(中国科学院心理研究所心理健康重点实验室,北京,100101) 

             皇甫刚(北京航天航空大学,北京,100083) 

 

        参考文献:

 

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                 2Savage L J. The foundations of statistics. New York:Wiley, 1954

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                 4Tversky A, Kahnman D. The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 1981, 211: 453458

                 5Kahneman D, Tversky A. Choices, values and frames. American Psychologist, 1984, 39: 341350

                 6Simon H A. Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review, 1956, 63: 129138

                 7Simon H A. Models of bounded rationality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1982

                 8Gigerenzer G, Todd P, the ABC Research Group. Simple Heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press,1999

                 9Gigerenzer G. Adaptive thinking - rationality in the real world. Oxford University Press, 2000

                 10Borges B, Goldstein D G, Ortmann A, Gigerenzer G. Can ignorance beat the stock market? In: G Gigerenzer, P Tod, the ABC Group. Simple heuristics that make us smart. New York: Oxford University Press, 1999. 5972

                 11Gigerenzer G, Goldstein D G. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review, 1996, 103: 650669

                 12Shafir E, LeBoenf. Rationality. Annual Review of Psychology, 2002, 53: 491517

                 13Kahneman D. New challenges to the rationality assumption. Journal of Institutional and theoretical economics, 1994, 150: 1836

                 14Kahneman D, Snell J. Predicting a changing taste: Do people know what they will like? Journal of Behavioral Decision making, 1992, 5: 187200

 

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