Pesaran, M.H., (1985), Formation of Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries, Economic Journal, 95, 948-975. Pesaran, M.H. and R. Smith, (1995), Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 68, 79-113. Seitz, H., (1988), The Estimation of Inflation Forecasts from Business Survey Data, Applied Economics, 20, 427-38. Souleles, N., (2004), Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36, 39-72. Taylor, M. P., (1988), What Do Investment Managers Know? An Empirical Study of Practitioners’ Predictions, Economica, 55, 185-202. Uygur, E., (1989), Inflation Expectations of the Turkish Manufacturing Firms, Discussion paper, the Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey, Research Department. 联合课题组,2002,《参与、不确定性与投资秩序的生成和演化》,《经济研究》,第2期。 唐寿宁,1999,《个人选择与投资秩序》,中国社会科学出版社。 北京奥尔多投资研究中心主编,2001,《风险、不确定性与秩序》,《奥尔多投资评论》第1卷第1辑,中国财政经济出版社。 伊特韦尔等编,1996,《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》(中文版),经济科学出版社。 肖争艳,陈彦斌,中国通货膨胀预期研究:调查数据方法,《金融研究》,2004年第11期。
(点此下载附件全文:肖争艳 唐寿宁 中国通货膨胀预期异质性研究.doc)
Study of Heterogeneity of Inflation Expectations in China
Xiao Zhengyan, Tang Shouning (School of Statistics, Renmin University) (Institute of Economics, CASS)
Abstract: This paper investigates the heterogeneity of inflation expectation of consumers in China. We divide the full sample from the Consumers Saving Survey System that is conducted by the Central Bank of China into five kinds of sample data sets by using the consumers’ saving motives. We calculate the expected inflation of five groups and study the properties inflation expectations of the five groups. We find that the heterogeneity of five group’s inflation expectation is significant and stationary. Keywords: inflation expectation; heterogeneity; investor’s participation; survey data; uncertainty JEL Classification: E31; E17; E3 |